Should Bago play Princeton in the Sectionals it will all hinge on Princeton's ability to handle the full court trapping press that Bago will use for the whole game.
Princeton couldn't handle it last year and were out of the game by halftime. Not sure what has changed for Princeton and Bago's press is quicker and better than last year.
One victory over a common opponent in their home gym might suggest to some that Princeton can beat Bago but consider:
1. Playing a team once on your home court (actually behind in the 3rd quarter) vs Bago playing them as many as four times (with one of those times being at Byron) makes it pretty tough to assume Princeton has an advantage should they play.
2. Its been pointed out on this board the problems Bago faced in the Byron game. The No. 2 scorer played maybe 6 minutes due to foul trouble. That won't happen in Game 3.
3. Byron probably scored 15 plus points from the FT line vs. Bago due to stupid fouls. . .
A perfect storm for Byron and Bago still won it. Winning on the road is very tough (anyone see what South Carolina did to No. 1 Kentucky last night?). Winning at home for a more talented team is expected.
One things is certain, if it all plays out as it should, it will be a great game and while Bago won't "have a cakewalk", I would still expect them to beat Princeton - of course I'm a little biased
Post by Mr. High School Guru on Jan 27, 2010 12:49:36 GMT -5
I am officially worried as a Bago fan. My concerns have nothing to do with Princeton beating Byron by 13 points. After seeing Princeton again yesterday bottomline is they MATCH UP well with Bago.
If they meet in the sectional final at Byron it will be a classic. Last years blow out in the super means nothing now. They both are much better teams but Princeton has two key things going for them.
Princeton has a deep bench and a coach willing to change during the game. I have a lot of respect for Princetons coach and def the schedule they play is like night and day vs Bagos WEAK schedule. Which is huge IMO.
Bago and Princeton fans you better be ready for all you can handle watching this game. I promise you this it will not be a repeat run away like the supers last year.
Offensively I think Bago has more fire power especially at getting to the basket and with the little jumpers down low. I think from the outside Princeton has a slight advantage and are def a better ft shooting team.
Defensively I would have to say there = Both teams really work hard on D.
There is a lot of questions and keys that will decide this game.
Will Bago stay out of foul trouble? If they don't Princeton will kill them at the line just like they did Byron last night going 18 for 20. If Princeton got 20 attempts vs Byron OMG how many will they get vs the aggresive Indians? Gulp...
Is Princeton going to a zone? If so AJ and Brad have to play key roles in breaking that zone. I think obv that was the huge factor vs Byron that we struggled with there zone because AJ and Brad weren't on the court. Those two are option B and C vs a zone IMO. AJ on top and Brad down low with Chaz AJ kills that shot at the top of the ft line and does a great job of feeding the post. Brad can hit those little bunnies off the glass as well.
Will Bago be able to keep there legs and handle the much deeper Princeton bench? Time will tell. Bago looked dead legged vs Byron but I believe thats because Murphy ran them to death at practice.
Can Princeton handle Bagos press? TBD...
Will Murphy adadpt to change in a playoff game when needed? TBD...
Here is the probable match ups IMO
Gus vs Brik Wedehind "5 11" This match up is even up. Brik who has played varsity all 4 years. Gus has the advantage on D but has to get his head up on O. Brik brings more to the O end running the O well. These two will have a lot of contact and both players are built like pit bulls.
Mann vs Reid Clary "6 3" This is a even up battle IMO. Reid is a 4 year varsity player. Reid has a better outside shot then Mann. Mann is better at slashing to the paint and has a nicer little jumper off the class when he gets with in 2 to 6 feet of the paint. Both are GREAT D players. Reid has some hops but not as much as Mann.
Posley vs Michael Murray Another even match up. Michael plays great D and plays above the rim. I think Michael will have trouble keeping up with Posley on D but I think the same can be said the other way around. Michael has a better jump shot. Posley is incredible at attacking the basket with a arsenal of different moves to get to the basket. But Posley has to get better at stroking the jumper.
Cross "6 7" vs Ryne Vrana "6 7" Chaz is longer and I give him the advantage over Ryne. But Chaz will have his hands full. Ryne has came along way as a player and I believe will hold is on banging around in the paint with Chaz. This will be Chaz toughest match up of the year IMO. But Chaz length will be the differnce on both ends. Ryne leads his team in scoring averaging in double figures. Ryne has some nice moves in the post and can handle the ball well in transition. He is also a high flyer who plays above the rim.
Reinke vs Scott Rosberg "6 3" If Reinke stays out of foul trouble I believe he will have his way with Scott on O. Scott is a little to slow IMO to handle Reinkes different ways to score on O. Scott will battle Reinke though for rebounds thats what Scott brings to his team.
AJ vs Scott Hull "6 5" If AJ can stay away from foul trouble he will have to play a huge roll in this game. I think AJ would man handle Scott down low. + the intimidation factor AJ brings is big. Just as long as he keeps it under control.
Jeff vs David Sailer "5 10" There both the same player IMO and would be a even match up
Eli VanAutreve "5 11" and Brock Schmidt "6 3" are there 8 and 9 guys for Princeton and I def give the advantage to those two over Clinite and TJ if they play come sectional time.
Post by boneyardscavenger on Jan 27, 2010 13:14:33 GMT -5
Very nice break down. I'm told by my Princeton freinds that I need to preface my comments by telling you all I'm from BV not Tiger Nation.
I may point out that Murray is only a junior, and he will make a long night for you if you dont get a hand in his face. Only he and the other guards can limit his scoring, very good from three and amazing hops, can and will block much taller players' shots. Schmidt may be the key. Streaky shooter that when he's on, literraly has half court range. I would say you never should under estimate Roseburg. He works very hard, gets to alot of loose balls and runs down rebounds like a coon dog. The key for princeton would be to keep Vrana playing. There is not an interchangeable piece for him on their bench. Most of the other players can be replaced by similar players but not Vrana.
We'll learn alot from Princeton when they play the Rockets again and The Riverton Shootout.
One thing we all know is you have to keep winning come tournament time for any of this jabber to matter, and that my freinds is why they play the games.
Post by oldsportnut on Jan 27, 2010 18:27:06 GMT -5
Boneyard has an interesting point and often talked about among the "Tiger Nation". "Only he and the other gaurds can limit his scoring" in reference to Mr Murray. Murray has spurts of intensity that can take a game over , started by his defense. The talk among the Nation is in flow of the offense he is often lost ,due to Clary and Wedikind. To often these two are colder than the outdoors from the field. Example last night, neither scored until the game was in control late in the fourth quarter. This shoot till you warm up thought process was costly at IVC. Both are 4 year varsity players as Guru put it, Clary has improved this year, last year he would pick up fouls at incredible pace, limiting his game time. And as one from the Nation said Mr Wedikind and his patented turn around, fade away ,air ball from the three point range that hits the old lady in the wheel chair by the door is still there. Among the nation the thought is a rematch with Bago will probable have the same results, the press will have the same results against the same guards. Mr Murray will be key if both teams make it there.